Canadian officials have not given up on reaching a Canada US trade deal before Americans head to the polls for the November midterm elections, although people familiar with the discussions describe the odds as slim. According to sources, the federal government sees a quick agreement as neither guaranteed nor expected, yet it has stopped short of calling one impossible. For investors who have spent more than a year pricing in tariff risk, even a faint chance of a breakthrough is worth watching closely.
The latest signals came out of a closed-door meeting in Ottawa on Thursday, October 22, 2026, when Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Canada’s Ambassador to the United States, Mark Wiseman, briefed Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Advisory Committee on Canada-U.S. Economic Relations. Four sources confirmed the briefing, which marked the 24-member group’s first gathering since September 4. As first detailed in an exclusive report published by BNN Bloomberg, LeBlanc told the committee that “anything is possible” between now and the midterms.
What Officials Told Carney’s Advisory Committee
One source characterized the trade conversations as “moving,” while warning that the movement may ultimately produce nothing concrete. LeBlanc reportedly pointed to political pressure inside the White House, citing polling that shows an increasingly hostile American electorate and fading prospects for Republican candidates. In his view, that pressure could change the calculus in Washington before votes are cast.
Wiseman offered a similar reading from his post in the U.S. capital, telling committee members that American public opinion has been shifting in Canada’s favour. An industry source added that the tariff dispute is resonating with voters in midterm races, including contests far from the border states that are most directly tied to Canadian trade. LeBlanc’s office declined to comment, and the government’s official readout of the meeting did not mention a possible deal, saying only that members discussed the ongoing effect of U.S. tariffs.
How Talks Broke Down in August
The cautious optimism stands in sharp contrast to the summer. Negotiations ended abruptly in August when Carney recalled Canada’s negotiating team, and the White House responded with a new round of tariffs. At a news conference on Parliament Hill on August 22, Carney framed the situation in stark terms, saying, “You’re at war when you get attacked,” and adding, “We got attacked.”
Carney has since explained that the talks collapsed because the Trump administration demanded too much while offering too little in return. He has also said Ottawa is prepared for a negotiation that stretches over months, or even one that outlasts the current administration. Speaking to CTV News in Istanbul, he said the outcome is “up to the United States,” describing Washington as “a little hard to predict,” while insisting Canada would be ready to sit down “this afternoon” if the Americans were prepared to negotiate in good faith.
Mixed Messages From Both Sides of the Border
Canada’s chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette, captured the current posture at the Toronto Global Forum when she said “pens are down and the doors are open.” She stressed that the immediate goal is to stabilize a relationship that she acknowledged is not stable right now. Notably, she also cautioned that the era of fully tariff-free trade with the United States is unlikely to return, saying she did not think Canada was “going back.”
The American side has struck a different tone. Speaking at an industry event in Ottawa on Tuesday, October 20, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said the two countries are “not in a trade war” and that Washington does not view the relationship as ruptured, while conceding that Canadians see things differently. Carney also spoke with President Donald Trump on Wednesday, October 21, for what was described as quite some time, covering trade, the Iran war and the Middle East. No formal readout of that call was released.
What a Canada US Trade Deal Could Mean for Investors
For Canadian markets, the stakes are significant. The United States remains Canada’s largest trading partner by a wide margin, and sectors such as autos, steel, aluminum, energy and forestry are deeply integrated with American supply chains. Any Canada US trade deal that reduces or removes tariffs would likely improve the earnings outlook for exporters and manufacturers, and could ease some of the uncertainty that has weighed on business investment decisions.
Currency traders would also be paying attention. The Canadian dollar tends to react to shifts in trade expectations, since a smoother flow of goods across the border supports demand for Canadian exports. A surprise agreement could lift the loonie, while a renewed escalation would likely do the opposite. Bond markets and the Bank of Canada also factor trade into their outlook, because tariffs affect both growth and prices.
That said, investors should be careful not to get ahead of the headlines. Officials themselves describe the chances of a pre-midterm agreement as faint, and Charette’s comments suggest that even a deal may not restore the pre-dispute status quo. Portfolios positioned for a quick and complete resolution could be vulnerable if talks stall again.
Midterm Politics as a Wildcard
The timing matters because American domestic politics may now be doing some of Canada’s work. If tariffs are seen as raising costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, and that perception shows up in polling, the administration could face pressure to demonstrate progress with a key ally. Canadian officials appear to be betting that this dynamic, rather than any new concession from Ottawa, is what keeps a door open.
At the same time, political incentives can cut both ways. A tough stance on trade can also play well with some voters, and Hoekstra’s remarks suggest Washington does not feel the same urgency that Ottawa does. Recent tensions, including U.S. accusations of Canadian election interference and Carney’s claim that American officials shifted their red lines after talks collapsed, add further uncertainty.
Conclusion
A Canada US trade deal before the November midterms remains a long shot, but it is no longer off the table. Ottawa is signalling readiness to return to the table at short notice, while preparing for a far longer dispute if needed. For Canadian investors, households and businesses, the prudent approach is to stay diversified, watch for concrete signals out of Washington rather than optimistic rhetoric, and recognize that even a successful agreement may leave some level of tariffs in place for the foreseeable future.
